US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta welcomes Israel's Minister of Defense Ehud Barak (L) to thePentagon in Washington September 19, 2011.
JERUSALEM - With the clock ticking down to the United Nations vote on a resolution recognizingPalestinian statehood, Israel and world leaders are engaged in back channel diplomacy to getthe Palestinians to withdraw their bid and return to the negotiating table.
Palestinian National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to speak at the UNGeneral Assembly (UNGA) on Friday, when he is expected to ask the UN Security Council(UNSC) to vote on a resolution recognizing an independent Palestinian state.
Israel and the United States oppose the move and argue that peace can only be achievedthrough negotiations. Washington has made it clear that the United States will veto thePalestinian request if it is submitted to the UN Security Council.
However, in an effort to avert the diplomatic crisis, the United States and other members of theMiddle East Quartet -- the UN, the European Union (EU) and Russia -- met on Sunday to draft astatement calling for Israel and the Palestinians to resume direct negotiations, which have beenstalled since last October.
According to Israeli media reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to alter someof his previous demands to give the Quartet more leeway on issues such as the borders of thePalestinian state and the demand that Abbas recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
Local analysts believe that the Palestinian statehood bid is almost inevitable, although Israel andthe Quartet haven't stopped last-ditch efforts for a diplomatic solution.
Frantic efforts
Netanyahu unveiled at Sunday's cabinet session his planned moves this week and the mainpoints of his address at the UN on Friday.
"My trip to the United States has two goals: to ensure that the Palestinian move is blocked at theSecurity Council and to put Israel's case against Palestinian statehood before the GeneralAssembly and present the truth: our desire for peace and the fact that we are not strangers inthis land, that we have rights dating back 4,000 years," Netanyahu told his ministers.
He is scheduled to leave Israel on Tuesday and meet with US President Barack ObamaWednesday, prior to the latter's address at the UN. The prime minister also plans to meet worldleaders in yet another effort to convince them to press the Palestinians to return to direct peacetalks.
In another effort to reach a compromise, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met withPalestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayyad in New York on Sunday. The latter reportedly is not infavor of a unilateral declaration of statehood.
At least seven Israeli ministers and deputy ministers have already been in the United States,where they are scheduled to be interviewed by a host of national and foreign media.
The members of the Middle East Quartet said Sunday it is not too late to block the UN vote.
"There's still a way to prevent a conflict. At the end of the day, the only way to arrive at aPalestinian state is via negotiations," Quartet envoy and former British prime minister Tony Blairsaid in a TV interview.
He expressed hope that a scenario in which the United States would be forced to use its vetopower in the Security Council would not materialize.
The Palestinian envoy to Germany, Saleh Abed al-Shafi, said Sunday the PNA will skip theSecurity Council if European states guarantee their support for Palestinian statehood at the UNGeneral Assembly.
Lacking alternative
"Regarding the option of the UN bid, Abbas knows very well that it will not be passed easilybecause the United States and European powers are going to oppose him," Prof. BassemZbeidi at Birzeit University told Xinhua.
He argued that going back to the negotiations, based on the same old game rules, wasabsolutely impossible for Abbas, because it would be "harmful to his standing and legitimacy."
"He had been losing ground since he went through the same talks that lasted for almost twodecades without much tangible outcome. This was suicidal for Abbas," Zbeidi said.
Notwithstanding the fact that the bid would be vetoed in the UNSC, it is important for Abbas togo through with the initiative, according to Zbeidi. "Because it gives him the opportunity to takea stand and send a message to his own people, as well as the United States and Israel."
"He is trying to tell them that the peace process needs a change, and future talks will have tobe conducted in a new manner, " Zbeidi said.
"Abbas knows that at the end of the day, he needs to get ready to negotiate with the Israelis,"Zbeidi argued.
Moral minority
In addition to coordinating with the United States, Israel is also trying to build a so called "moralminority" of friendly countries in the UNGA, should Abbas approach the assembly instead of theUNSC.
A vote in the UNGA will not grant the Palestinians full membership, but it will upgrade theirstatus from observer entity to a non-member observer state. This will allow them to seekmembership in UN organizations, such as the Human Rights Council and the InternationalCriminal Court, without voting rights.
Israel is focusing its efforts on securing a number of European countries' support, since the EUhas not agreed on a unified position.
It would be more comfortable for Israeli decision makers and diplomats to say that they havethe support of the countries who share tremendous political, economic and security interestswith the Jewish state, said Dr. Mark Heller of Tel Aviv University.
But he downplayed the significance of such an alliance, as Abbas seems to be intent on takingthe issue to the UNSC, where the Palestinians don't stand much chance.
"It won't be passed in the UNSC, although the United States prefer not to be alone (usingveto)," Heller said.
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