UNITED NATIONS - Leaders from all over the world will stand at the iconic rostrum of the UNGeneral Assembly this week during the assembly's 66th plenary session, but few speeches arelikely to reverberate so strongly as that of Mahmoud Abbas, president of the PalestinianNational Authority (PNA).
On September 23, the PNA president is expected to announce officially in front of the GeneralAssembly that he will submit an application for Palestine to become a UN member state.
Abdallah Schleifer, professor emeritus of Journalism at the American University in Cairo, Egypt,told Xinhua in a recent interview that this bid for UN statehood could in the long termreinvigorate the stalled peace process with Israel, despite the reality that Palestine's move willmost likely be thwarted by a veto in the UN Security Council by the U.S., a close ally of Israel.
The government of Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has respondednegatively to Palestine's decision to pursue official UN member statehood, but Schleifer saidthat the Israelis might eventually be compelled to move closer to the negotiating table due tothe situation at the UN.
"Short term, according to the rhetoric that is coming from the Netanyahu government, it will nothelp the renewal of negotiations because the Israelis are saying that this is outrageous, and ifyou do it everything's off the table," he said of the bid. "But long term, I think it will because it'sgoing to intensify pressure on the regime, particularly if opposition elements in Israel pick up onthis, and it's already happening."
In order to become a UN member state, Palestine, currently only a permanent observer in theglobal organization, must first gain a recommendation in the form of a resolution from the UNSecurity Council. The U.S is one of the five permanent members of the council, and hasindicated that it will use the veto power that comes with permanent status to prevent such aresolution from passing.
Alternatively, Abbas could seek a lesser level of UN membership, non-member observerstatehood, by skipping the Security Council and going straight to the General Assembly, wherePalestine's statehood already has plenty of support.
Feelings of frustration and winds of change
Schleifer said that the timing of the proposal for UN statehood is in part prompted by themounting frustration of Palestinians at the lack of progress in peace talks with Israel.
"Suddenly, I'm sure, just from talking with Palestinian colleagues, that there is a sense amongPalestinians of almost desperation, that they are being left behind, that the focus for theachievement of a Palestinian two-state solution, a Palestinian state living alongside an Israelistate based on negotiations, has collapsed," he explained.
Direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine have been suspended since October 2010,when Israel decided not to renew a moratorium on settlement building in the West Bank,prompting Palestine to disengage. The September 2011 deadline for a peace settlement set bythe diplomatic Quartet for the Middle East -- comprised of the UN, the U.S., the RussianFederation, and the European Union (EU) -- will also come to pass soon, without any concreteprogress thus far in bringing the parties back to the negotiating table.
Another factor in Palestinians'growing frustration has been the Arab Spring, Schleifer said.
"Now, while you could say that the Arab Spring has yet to be as transformative as its ambition, itnevertheless has led to the downfall of the previous president of Tunisia and a commitment bytransitional powers that there will be elections," he said. "Same thing in Egypt, and in Libya ithas led to what looks like the end of the Gadhafi regime. So these are momentous changesthat are taking place in the Arab world."
These dramatic changes, according to Schleifer, have likely only made the political stagnationin Palestine more conspicuous to its people, including Abbas.
"He's very self-conscious I think of the overall atmosphere of change in the Arab world, whichdramatizes the lack of accomplishment in terms of achieving a Palestinian state throughnegotiations," said Schleifer of the PNA president.
He also noted that Abbas has called for the demonstrations favoring a Palestinian seat at theUN to be peaceful, directly echoing the non-violent tactics used in several Middle Eastern andNorth African nations during the Arab Spring protests.
Global impact
The Palestinian delegation's proposal for statehood has prompted responses of support fromthe Arab world and many countries beyond, but Israel and the U.S. have expressed decideddisapproval.
Netanyahu has deemed the Palestinian steps to gain statehood at the UN "unilateral," sayingthat direct peace negotiations must be concluded with Israel before such a measure can betaken.
"The leadership of the Palestinian Authority has consistently evaded peace negotiations withIsrael," Netanyahu said in a statement. "When the Palestinian Authority abandons these futileand unilateral measures at the UN, it will find Israel to be a genuine partner for direct peacenegotiations."
Abbas has explained that Palestine would still like to re-enter negotiations under the rightconditions, including a guarantee that the peace process would begin with the 1967 borders,and that Israel would not allow new settlements to be built on occupied lands.
He has said that he does not believe that seeking statehood at the UN would contradict bilateralpeace talks or make them null and void.
"We want to gain the full membership from the UN in order to resume the peace negotiations onthe permanent status issues, mainly the question of refugees," he said in a September 16televised speech on his statehood plans.
Schleifer said that although Abbas'decision to make a run for statehood has furtherantagonized Israel and the U.S. for the time being, in the end it may help the peace processresume by exhibiting, on the most global of platforms, how alone the two nations are in theirobjections to Palestine's statehood.
Even if the U.S. exercises its veto power to end the statehood run in the Security Council,according to Schleifer, the staggering number of countries that would disagree with the vetowould be proof enough of widespread international support for Palestine's goal.
"It isn't actual statehood but it's a recognition of the validity, of the desire for statehood, thatwould be manifest in a seat at the United Nations and manifest in a vote because we are allassured that the United States will veto that, therefore they are not going to have a seat as amember of the United Nations," said Schleifer. "But they will have this sort of global attention tothe way and the fact that just about everybody outside of the governments of Israel and theUnited States believes that it's time for a Palestinian state and that will be reflected in the UNGeneral Assembly vote, which will be overwhelming."
Schleifer said that this may make Israelis and Americans rethink their governments'stances onPalestine.
"The basis of the two-state solution is there, its sitting in the air so to speak and it would takean aroused Israeli public and an aroused American public which may happen with these eventsto say, 'Wait a minute, what is going on? Why are we allowing ourselves to become soisolated?'and certainly that's a pressing question for Israelis," he said. "So that's where I thinkthe Palestinian leadership is hoping that there will be more movement above and beyondsatisfying the emotional needs of their own people to see some accomplishment."
A second option
Even the lesser upgrade of Palestine to a non-member observer state would be, in Schleifer'sestimation, a viable alternative that would still make a comparable point to Israel and the world.
"There's no loss in that as long as they go from the point of view of Palestinian leadershiprefusing to knuckle under to American and Israeli demands," he said.
As a non-member observer state, like the Vatican, Palestine would not be allowed to cast votes,but it would be allowed to greater participation in the affairs of the UN and potentially theInternational Criminal Court (ICC).
Schleifer said that possible ICC membership is particularly significant because it would allowPalestine to exercise legal remedies against Israeli officials who they believe have violatedinternational law.
"This would now make it very formal if they go to the international court," he said.
"Also there's another fact, which is establishing a precedent, and that is a number of countries,which are now member states of the United Nations started out as non-member states."
If Palestine becomes a non-voting member state, it will still have a path to full statehood.Nations like Finland, Bangladesh, and Vietnam have completed this transition successfully inthe past.
Schleifer said that Abbas will no doubt stress these examples to Israel and Palestine if his biddoes not pass the Security Council.
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